2008 Goobergunch Political Report
We do not have maps for House, Governor, and other miscellaneous races, but we will be providing projections for those in the Updates.
The following maps contain the latest GPR projections for President and Senate. On these maps, red indicates Republican victories and blue indicates Democratic victories; gray indicates races in which the polls have not yet closed, while white indicates races that are considered "too close to call"; black indicates races that are headed for a runoff.
| 111th House |
| Democrats |
Republicans |
| 255 |
175 |
Archives:
Questions or comments? E-mail me: martin at goobergunch dot net.
News and Updates
Tuesday, 18 November 2008
We are now projecting that Mark Begich (D) has defeated Sen. Ted Stevens (R) in the Alaska Senate race.
Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) will retain his chairmanship of the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs; however, the Senate Democratic Caucus did decide to "punish" him for his vocal support of Republican candidates in the 2008 election cycle by revoking his chairmanship of the Environment and Public Works Subcommittee on PRivate Sector and Consumer Solutions to Global Warming and Wildlife Protection.
Saturday, 8 November 2008
We are now projecting that Rep. Dave Reichert (R) has defeated Darcy Burner (D) in the WA-08 Congressional race.
Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) will be stepping down as Appropriations Committee chair in favor of Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI). This requires Inouye to resign the chair of the Committee, Science, and Transportation Committee, and Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) would be the next in line for that chairmanship. Rockefeller is currently the Intelligence Committee chair, and his vacation of that spot would give Sen. Diane Feinstein (D-CA) that chairmanship. Finally, this would open the Rules and Administration Commitee chair, for which Charles Schumer (D-NY) would be the first in line.
Friday, 7 November 2008
We are now projecting that Frank Kratovil (D) has defeated Andy Harris (R) in the MD-01 Congressional race.
We are now projecting NE-02 for Barack Obama. As this was the last electoral vote to be projected, it appears that the final electoral tally will be Obama/Biden 365, McCain/Palin 173, pending any "faithless electors" or other odd votes.
Thursday, 6 November 2008
We are now projecting North Carolina for Barack Obama. It also appears, upon further review, that the Presidential race in NE-02 is too close to call, as McCain leads by only a few hundred votes with many outstanding ballots.
President-Elect Obama has announced the appointment of Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) as Chief of Staff. This will create a vacancy in the House in that (safe Democratic) district early in the 111th Congress. There are already two vacancies in the Senate due to the Presidential election; the Democratic governors of Illinois and Delaware get to appoint Obama and Biden's successors.
It looks like there will be a bit of a shakeup in the House Republican leadership. While John Boehner (OH) will probably remain Minority Leader, Minority Whip Roy Blunt (MO) is stepping down in favor of Eric Cantor (VA). Adam Putnam (FL) is also stepping down from the Republican Conference Chair post (#3 in the leadership), with Mike Pence (IN) as the favorite to replace him. Tom Cole (OK) hasn't said whether he plans on trying to remain NRCC chairman, but Boehner is supporting Pete Sessions (TX) to replace him.
Wednesday, 5 November 2008
All update times for live election coverage are Pacific Standard unless otherwise specified.
[22:25] We are retracting the projection of OH-15 for Steve Stivers (R). It turns out that the Associated Press was misreporting the results and double-counting two Republican counties, showing a 12,415 vote lead for Stivers. Instead, Stivers only has a 321 vote lead. This race will almost certainly see a recount, and is now Too Close To Call.
While we stand by our projection in CA-44 (Calvert (R) defeats Hedrick (D)), the race has narrowed such that Calvert has a mere 4600 vote lead. The final returns in this race definitely bears watching, and neither candidate has claimed victory or conceded.
Finally, we are now projecting that Don Young (R-AK-AL) has been re-elected.
[18:45] We now estimate that Jeff Merkley (D) has won the Oregon Senate race, defeating Gordon Smith.
[18:34] We are now projecting that McCain has won Missouri. While Obama leads in North Carolina, the race is still too close to call there.
[15:33] At this time, we have not yet projected a winner in the following House races: AK-AL (Young (R) leads Berkowitz (D) by 16,887 votes pending many absentee ballots), CA-04 (McClintock (R) leads Brown (D) by 451 votes), MD-01 (Kratovil (D) leads Harris (R) by 915 votes), VA-05 (Perriello (D) leads Goode (R) by 80 votes), and WA-08 (Reichert (R) leads Burner (D) by 614 votes). Also, the LA-02 and LA-04 races will not be decided until December.
[15:29] We are projecting a runoff in the Georgia Senate race. The Minnesota Senate race is going to a recount, while Oregon and Alaska remain too close to call pending more votes to be counted.
[15:26] Democrats pick up ID-01, hold CO-02. Republicans hold CA-50.
[3:41] Upon further review, there's a roughly two million vote differential between 2004 and 2008 turnout numbers. I find it hard to believe that California turnout dropped so substantially in the last four years, and as such assume that there are a great number of absentee or early votes yet to be counted. As such, I'm leaving the close proposition battles as too close to call for now. Good night, everybody!
[2:53] A GPR vote analysis indicates that it will be extremely difficult for California's Proposition 8 to be defeated, with 85.6% of precincts reporting.
[2:50] Republicans hold CA-44.
[2:16] Republicans hold OH-15.
[0:35] According to the Atlanta Journal-Constition, there are over 600,000 uncounted votes in Georgia. We're not calling that Senate race tonight, folks.
[0:49] MI-07 goes Democratic, as does VA-02.
[0:23] One more Democratic pick-up: NV-03.
[0:05] Montana goes for McCain. Two states left....
Tuesday, 4 November 2008
All update times for live election coverage are Pacific Standard unless otherwise specified.
[23:44] The Democratic pick-up list continues with MI-09, NM-01, NM-02, NY-25, and NY-29. This gives New Mexico an all-Democratic House delegation.
[23:28] John McCain has finished his victory in Nebraska by picking up the 2nd district, getting to 160 electoral votes with 3 states outstanding.
[23:24] KS-02 is one of the few GOP pickups tonight.
[23:08] Indiana called for Obama -- the first time it's gone Dem for POTUS since 1964.
[23:07] More pickups: NJ-03, PA-03 for the Dems.
[22:40] Alaska for McCain.
[22:14] More pick-ups: VA-11, AL-02 for the Dems.
[22:10] Christine Gregoire (D) has been re-elected governor of Washington, as has Vermont governor Jim Douglas (R).
[22:00] Alaska seems to be too close to call. All national polls are now closed.
[20:38] Obama wins Nevada.
[20:33] McCain wins Arizona, shockingly. Udall (D) wins the CO Senate race, Landrieu (D) wins the LA Senate race.
[20:17] Throw Colorado and Florida into Obama's column.
[20:00] We now project that Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States, with victories in CA, WA, HI, and OR.
[19:53] Wicker defeats Musgrove in the other Mississippi Senate race.
[19:51] Democrats pick up NY-13, NY-25, and IL-11. That's +6 net.
[19:46] We're projecting that Obama wins Virginia. There aren't enough votes left for McCain to make up his 57K vote deficit -- especially late-reporting precincts, which tend to favor Democrats.
[19:41] Nebraska has gone for McCain -- but NE-2 is still too close to call.
[19:37] Another Democratic pickup in NC-8 (+3). McCain wins South Dakota, with 22 minutes to go before polls close in the West.
[19:35] Michigan has approved a medical marijuana proposition, while Massachusetts has decriminalized possession of small amounts of marijuana.
[19:26] {TX,NE}-Sen: Cornyn (R) re-elected, Johann (R) elected. Given Chambliss's lead in Georgia, it looks very hard for the Democrats to get to 60 seats.
[19:21] FL-16: Republican pick-up. Turns out infidelity is bad. Also, Republicans pick up KY-02. Dems are down to +2 in the House on the night.
[19:18] We're projecting Democratic gubernatorial victories in NC and MT, while Republican governors win in UT and ND.
[19:09] The South Dakota abortion ban, as well as a Colorado abortion measure, have been defeated.
[19:00] McCain in Utah, Obama in Iowa. Some Senate calls too. And McCain finally wins Mississippi.
[18:55] McCain wins Texas. Shocking.
[18:48] Democratic pickups in CT-4, OH-15. Four total now.
[18:35] Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has defeated Lunsford, we project.
[18:15] Obama has won Ohio. He wins the White House when the West Coast comes in.
[18:00] Even more updates! ND-POTUS goes for McCain, CO-Sen goes for Udall (D). Yay for lots of returns coming in quickly!
[17:47] FL-08 is the second Democratic House pickup of the night.
[17:41] Not on the standings yet, but we're projecting a (D) pickup in FL-24, as well as (D) holds in IN-09, IN-02, KY-03. (R) holds in IN-03.
[17:40] GA-POTUS: McCain wins.
[17:34] AL-POTUS: McCain wins, no surprise there. Currently staring at VA and FL county-level data.
[17:28] NC-Sen: Hagan defeats Dole. Third (D) pickup of the night.
[17:00] A bunch of projections. See the maps. Also, House race projections are getting delayed due to sheer volume. DE, MO, NH governors go Democratic.
[16:47] SC goes for McCain.
[16:30] NC, OH, WV - all too close to call. Although Joe Manchin (D) has been re-elected governor in WV, and Jay Rockefeller (D) senator.
[16:29] We are projecting that Mitch Daniels has been re-elected Indiana governor.
[16:00] VT-Pres and VA-Sen for the Dems, KY-Pres and SC-Sen for the GOP.
[15:27] To clarify, I am not going to be posting every single non-competitive House race in this section. I just wanted to note the very first races in which all the polls have closed. Future "on the hour" updates probably will not list House races.
[15:00] We are projecting that Democrats have retained KY-6 and Republicans have retained IN-5, IN-6, KY-4, and KY-5.
Monday, 3 November 2008
All update times for live election coverage are Pacific Standard unless otherwise specified.
[21:41] With 1% of precincts reporting in New Hampshire, the early returns are: Obama 32, McCain 16, Paul 2. These come from Dixville and Hart's Location, which traditionally vote at midnight on election day. Dixville and Hart's Location are traditionally very Republican (especially Dixville, which hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1968), so this comes as quite a surprise.
Thursday, 30 October 2008
Congressional Quarterly suggests that Sen. Joe Lieberman will continue to caucus with the Democrats but be stripped of his chairmanship of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. Accordingly, we have shifted Lieberman (the yellow "CT" block on the Senate projection map) to the Democratic side of the aisle.
(Incidentally, the green "VT" block on the Senate projection map represents the other Senate independent, Bernie Sanders, a self-identified socialist.)
Sunday, 26 October 2008
Welcome to our live coverage of the general election returns! While Election Day balloting won't occur for over a week, the rise in early voting and absentee balloting means that it's time to post the GPR election projection maps.
Tuesday, 2 September 2008
According to the DNC, the final tally of the Roll Call Vote of the Democratic National Convention on the question of presidential nomination would have been as follows:
| B. Obama | H. Clinton |
|---|
| 3188½ | 1010½ |
Friday, 29 August 2008
John McCain has chosen Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate.
Wednesday, 27 August 2008
The name of Senator Hillary Clinton (NY) was put into nomination by Delores Huerta (CA) and seconded by Jordan Apollo-Pazell (UT) and Williams Harris (NY).
The name of Senator Barack Obama (IL) was put into nomination by Michael Wilson (FL) and seconded by Ken Salazar (CO), Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL), and Artur David (AL).
With 2210 delegate votes needed to nominate, the Roll Call Vote of the Democratic National Convention on the question of presidential nomination is as follows:
| Delegation |
B. Obama |
H. Clinton |
Abstain |
| Alabama |
48 |
5 |
| Alaska |
15 |
3 |
| American Samoa |
9 |
| Arizona |
40 |
27 |
| Arkansas |
47 |
| California |
PASSES |
| Colorado |
55 |
15 |
| Connecticut |
38 |
21 |
| Delaware |
23 |
| Democrats Abroad |
8½ |
2½ |
| District of Columbia |
33 |
7 |
| Florida |
136 |
51 |
1 |
| Georgia |
82 |
18 |
| Guam |
4 |
3 |
| Hawaii |
26 |
1 |
| Idaho |
20 |
3 |
| Illinois |
PASSES |
| Indiana |
75 |
6 |
| Iowa |
48 |
9 |
| Kansas |
34 |
6 |
| Kentucky |
36 |
24 |
| Louisiana |
43 |
7 |
| Maine |
24 |
8 |
| Maryland |
94 |
6 |
| Massachusetts |
65 |
52 |
| Michigan |
125 |
27 |
| Minnesota |
78 |
8 |
| Mississippi |
33 |
8 |
| Missouri |
82 |
6 |
| Montana |
18 |
7 |
| Nebraska |
28 |
3 |
| Nevada |
25 |
8 |
| New Hampshire |
30 |
| New Jersey |
127 |
| New Mexico |
YIELDS TO ILLINOIS |
| Illinois |
YIELDS TO NEW YORK |
| Subtotal |
1549½ |
341½ |
1 |
Upon the recognition of the delegation from New York, Hillary Clinton moved to suspend the rules and nominate Barack Obama by acclimation. The motion was carried by voice vote. Therefore, Barack Obama is the nominee of the Democratic Party for President.
During the presentation of her motion, Clinton stated that the complete delegate tally would be released at a later time. We'll provide that as soon as we find it.
Monday, 25 August 2008
The Democratic National Convention, by voice vote, has adopted the Credentials Committee report (granting Michigan and Florida full votes), the Rules Committee report (which, among other things, establishes a commission to review the primary process), and the Platform Committee report. There was no discussion on any of the motions to approve.
Sunday, 24 August 2008
Congressional Quarterly reports that the Democratic National Convention's Credentials Committee has voted unanimously to reinstate in full the votes of the delegations from Florida and Michigan. Although not every delegate will attend the convention, there are now a total of 4418 delegate votes at the Democratic National Convention, with 2209½ needed to nominate.
Barack Obama has chosen Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware to be his running mate. This selection does not impact the partisan composition of the Senate; Biden can run concurrently for re-election and for Vice President (and faces minimal competition for his Senate seat), and should Biden be elected Vice President, the governor's house in Delaware will almost surely be retained by the Democrats, allowing the appointment of a Democratic replacement.
Sunday, 3 August 2008
It took rather longer than I was originally anticipating to post the next update to the Goobergunch Political Report. While some of this was due to post-primary burnout, the other problem was that there just wasn't much solid data to report. There are plenty of other websites that give predictions about the result of the upcoming general elections, but from a purely fact-based perspective, the 2008 presidential electoral map looks like this:
I'd like to refocus this website into reporting on Congressional legislation and proceedings in a way that's hopefully a bit more comprehensive and comprehendible than most coverage out there. However, doing this as the 110th Congress was winding down seems somewhat futile. As I write this, Congress has adjourned for their usual August recess; the Congressional leadership has also indicate that they plan on adjourning at the beginning of October, rather than having the lame duck November and December sessions prevalent in the last several years. Therefore, I plan on kicking off Congressional coverage for the 111th Congress when it gets ready to convene this winter.
However, that doesn't mean I'm just going to leave this website blank for the next few months. I'll be working on some software upgrades that allows more reader participation in the website, permitting a more interactive format than "e-mail me with questions or comments". I will also be covering anything exciting (like votes) that occur at the conventions, as well as Congressional primaries and interesting state ballot measures. Soon, I'll be posting a couple pages providing information for voter registration and absentee ballot application throughout the United States. Finally, I'll have live election-night coverage of the 2008 general election, with maps and everything.
